For months, NFL draft experts have been predicting complete pandemonium on draft day. Hours before Thursday night, a ton of uncertainty remained beyond Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders. Unsurprisingly, the draft itself lived up to its unpredictable billing. Few people could’ve anticipated the Chiefs’ aggressive trade, the Steelers’ debacle, the Jets and Giants actually doing something smart, and the Rams’ major blunder. The NFL draft is a crapshoot, and a good class for a team typically consists of around three quality players. Because of that, every pick is crucial, especially the first rounders, where the players are most likely to turn into future stars. While I am not gifted the hindsight that is needed to truly analyze a pick, I will be attempting to determine some of the best and the worst selections from this years’ first round.
Best picks:
- Caleb Downs, Safety, Dallas Cowboys (pick 11)
While Downs’ fall wasn’t necessarily surprising, given his position and the lack of draft capital teams typically invest in it, nabbing him at pick eleven was highway robbery, to say the least. Downs is one of the most intelligent collegiate players of all time, as he demonstrates a knack for being in the right place at the right time. His sophomore year, he was the best defensive player on the field for a national championship-winning defense. One of Downs’ best aspects is his versatility, as he can line up pretty much anywhere in the secondary. This is an awesome addition to a Dallas defense that struggled badly last season.
- Arvell Reese, Linebacker, New York Giants (pick 5)
The fifth pick couldn’t have gone much better for the Giants. Arvell Reese, who many considered to be the top prospect in the class, had interest from the Jets (#2), Cardinals (#3), and Titans (#4), but somehow fell right into New York’s arms. Reese is a physically gifted specimen, allowing him to play as a linebacker or edge rusher. He played more of a hybrid role for Ohio State last season and absolutely tortured opposing offensive lineman. It will be really interesting to see how the Giants use him considering they have last year’s first round pick Abdul Carter, along with all-pro Brian Burns, playing at his position (and Kayvon Thibodeaux, though it seems certain he will be moved).
- Dillon Thienamen, Safety, Chicago Bears (#25)
Another safety who became an unfortunate casualty of the changing positional values in the modern NFL, Thienamen, who was often projected to be long gone before pick twenty, somehow reached Chicago. His versatility will be a welcome addition to their secondary, and he will most definitely start week one. He is consistently all over the field, utilizing his anticipation and speed to make plays. Though he’s not a huge person, he plays physical. The Bears got extremely lucky that a player of this caliber fell to them in the mid-twenties.
Worst picks:
- Ty Simpson, Quarterback, Los Angeles Rams
It seems as if the entire Rams’ organization had a little too much to drink at the predraft parties, as intoxication is the only rational explanation for an organization as smart as the Rams doing something so stupid. There are so many problems with this selection, starting with the lack of need for him. Matthew Stafford is the reigning MVP and, despite approaching forty, is showing no signs of slowing down. The Rams this year are really, really good, and they appear more than capable of making a deep playoff run. Why would they prioritize building for the future with this pick when their entire roster was constructed through a win-now principle? Also, I’d somewhat understand the selection if a generational QB talent was on the board, but it’s Ty Simpson we’re talking about. He’s just not that good; he’s inexperienced, lacks arm talent, and played horrendously for the better part of the second half of last season. What the heck were they thinking?
- Max Iheanachor, Offensive Tackle, Pittsburgh Steelers (#21)
Honestly, I don’t have much of an issue with the player here, outside of the fact that he’s extremely new to football (only been playing for three years). The bigger issue is the fiasco that ensued while the Cowboys, who had the pick before the Steelers, were on the clock. Pittsburgh called WR Makai Lemon and told him they were going to pick him, as everyone knew the Cowboys were going defense and weren’t going to select him. However, during the call with the team, Lemon received a separate call from the Eagles. Confused, Lemon asked why Philadelphia was calling him, only for him to find out that the Eagles had traded up and were picking him ahead of the Steelers. They instead had to settle for Iheanachor, a solid player, but the damage was done with that embarrassing moment.
- Kaydn Proctor, Offensive Tackle, Miami Dolphins (#12)
Again, not necessarily a bad player here, but offensive tackle was not a position of need for Miami. Their current offense lacks juice besides De’Von Achane (their WR1 is Jalen Tolbert!), and a wide receiver, like Lemon, Omar Cooper, or Denzel Boston, would have been much better for the team. They could’ve traded back even further (already went back one due to trade with Dallas) and accumulated even more draft capital, which they could’ve used to address the various holes plaguing the roster. Again, the draft is a crapshoot and every pick counts, so more picks would have been really beneficial here. This is also more of a personal preference, but I preferred Monroe Freeling (who eventually went to the Panthers, another stellar selection that just missed the list) to Proctor, whose lack of collegiate production concerns me a little.
Evaluating collegiate prospects is one of the hardest things to do, which is why NFL teams mess it up so frequently. Hopefully, this article ages better than some of the other infamous pieces from previous years that criticize selections that turn out to be future MVPs, though, if Ty Simpson ever amounts to something, I’m in deep trouble.
