Historically Speaking

Predictions for 2016 from the Social Studies Department
Tuesday, November 3rd, 2015

At 375 days before election day, I did feel a little silly asking people to go on record making predictions about its outcome. But they say history repeats itself, so I interviewed 12 teachers from CHS’ social studies and business departments. My question: at this point (Oct. 29-30), who would you predict to win the Republican nomination? Below are their (paraphrased) responses. Two opinions were virtually unanimous: Donald Trump, while lasting longer than expected, will be irrelevant by next year, and Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic primary unless something catastrophic happens to her campaign. About half the teachers I surveyed expected Clinton to win the general election regardless of who the GOP nominee was, while others said it could either way. How will things change? Look out for a follow-up article as we get closer to the primaries.

Ms. Avery (US History)

  • A disappointed establishment makes an outsider nominee still possible, but Trump doesn’t have specific plans and Carson lacks political experience.
  • No one wants another Bush.
  • Rubio is younger and appeals to a new demographic for Republicans.

 

Mr. Carroll (US History) -

  • Rubio might be the dark horse candidate, since he is young, eloquent, etc.
  • Carson’s appeal is that he’s intelligent, well-spoken, and not prone to having gaffes. He represents a minority, which could counter Clinton (female) and Sanders (socialist).
  • He’s attractive to those frustrated with the cronyism in what many would call a broken Washington.

 

Mr. Deloatch (US History, Law and Society, Sociology) -

  • Outside candidates have big ideas (Carson’s tax plan, for example) that won’t fly with the legislative or judicial brances.
  • At the end of the day, voters will look for someone with specific, realistic plans who can bring people together and lead the country in a direction different from Obama’s.
  • Rubio and Kasich both have the political experience to play well to the base.

 

Ms. Kielblock (World History, European History)

  • Carson is too soft-spoken.
  • Rubio has that young, fresh, energetic appeal.
  • Bush isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but Rubio is the only one who has a good chance of beating Clinton, and voters will recognize that.

 

Mr. Kmiec (Financial Literacy, Economics)

  • It will come down to Bush and Rubio, because they stand a high chance of accumulating defectors as other candidates drop out of the race (unlike Trump).
  • Bush has money, but his name is a problem.
  • His “Republican Obama” attack was genius, until Rubio shot him down in the debate.

 

Ms. Kousoulis (US History, Pscyhology)

  • Voters will appreciate that frontrunner Carson is a different breed of politican. Actually, he is barely a politician.
  • There won’t be big changes in the polls. Trump, however, isn’t going to stay up top.

 

Mr. Meguerian (US History, World History, Art History)

  • It’s equally likely for the nomination to go to an establishment or outsider candidate.
  • Since the primary electorate is generally more extreme than the Republican electorate for the general election, the nomination will go to someone able to appeal to the farther right.
  • It’s a toss up between Carson and Rubio.

 

Ms. Shepardson (World History, Holocaust and Genocide)

  • Rubio’s campaign seems to be most reflective of mainstream Republican views.
  • The more extreme or controversial stances taken by other candidates will make them cancel each other out.

 

Mr. Steinmetz (Digital Literacy, Financial Literacy, Principles of Business, Marketing 21st Century) -

  • Bush has the name recognition that the others don’t. That said, Bush isn’t the most popular name.

 

Mr. Swartz (CHS Substitute)

  • Carson is a non-politician. He’s also intelligent, and seems trustworthy.
  • The different backgrounds of many frontrunners are evidence of people’s dissatisfaction with career politicians.

 

Ms. Walters (US History, Government and Politics)

  • Although Carson and Trump are leading in the polls, as the primaries get closer voters will start asking themselves who stands a legitimate chance against Clinton.
  • Most voters will consider an outsider candidate, with no political experience, too risky.
  • They’ll play it safe with Rubio.